Digesting the 2024 Election Results
Top Line Results for the Ninth Middlesex District
Turnout: 71.3% [19,679 ballots cast / 27,586 registered voters]
Stanley (D): 67.4% [13,262 votes/ballots cast]
Downs (R): 19.3% [3,794 votes/ballots cast]
Diamond (F): 6.1% [1,205 votes/ballots cast]
Unofficial Waltham Election Results
Conceding the Race
I wish to share with the voters of Waltham my gratitude for their enthusiastic participation in the 2024 general election, and I would particularly like to thank all of the friends, neighbors, and Forward Party supporters who donated to or volunteered for my campaign. I would also like to thank the Republican challenger for having the courage to step into a contest and political system designed to heavily favor the Democratic incumbent in this district. Finally, I would like to offer my congratulations to the incumbent State Rep for his victory in this election. I wish Representative Stanley the best of luck as he advocates for Waltham in Beacon Hill over the next 2 years, and I look forward to challenging him again in 2026 (if he decides to run again).
My perspective on my performance
As a first-time, independent candidate that was learning as I went and challenging a 12-term incumbent with intergenerational name-recognition in Waltham (as well as the backing of the predominant political party in Massachusetts), I’m proud of the portion of the overall vote that I received district-wide (6.1%), which for perspective is more than twice the threshold (3%) required for statewide candidates of a political designation to officially establish a new political party in Massachusetts. I believe this bodes well for the Forward Party in Massachusetts more broadly as we continue to build a broad coalition over the coming years.
Some nuances about the results
While I am disappointed to have not performed as well as the Republican candidate, who’s primary distinguishing policy position was to advocate for loosening gun restrictions, I understand that I was facing a strong headwind with Trump driving Republican-leaning (and particularly MAGA-leaning) voters to the polls, and I am comforted by the following highlights of my performance:
In the precincts where I had the most direct contact with voters, I had a relatively larger share of the vote, indicating that the more familiar voters are with me as a person and my platform the more likely they are to vote for me! (This trend is more convincing when you realize that the number of blanks in the race held steady across both low-contact and high-contact precincts.)
The overall turnout rates in a precinct did not have a significant correlation with the portion of votes I received in the precinct, suggesting that my support was widespread and not dependent on a specific subset of voters turning out.
In precincts where the incumbent Democratic State Rep candidate underperformed the Democratic Presidential candidate, my portion of the votes averaged 6.6%, which was significantly higher than my district-wide average (6.1%), which may suggest that my candidacy was popular with progressive voters (both unenrolled voters & registered Democrats) once they got to know me.
The Republican State Rep candidate underperformed the Republican Presidential candidate significantly district-wide (by 36.7% on average), indicating that there were many anti-Harris voters that were not actually interested in supporting the Republican Party locally in Massachusetts. When combined with the fact that precincts where the Republican State Rep candidate received less than her district-wide average (19.3%), I received 6.8% of the votes on average (better than my district-wide average of 6.1%), suggesting that my message also resonated with “moderate” anti-Harris voters who are still looking for a change at the local level.
On average across the district, I covered 54.8% of the anti-Harris gap (the difference between the votes for the Republican Presidential and the Republican State Rep candidates). In particular, there were 3 precincts where I received as many votes (or more) than the anti-Harris gap, and all 3 of these precincts were ones that I had more direct contact with voters before Election Day.
I was NOT a spoiler! By comparing the blank ballots in this contested race (9th Middlesex House district) to a comparable uncontested race (3rd Middlesex Senate district) where Michael Barrett ran unopposed, I observed the following in the overlapping precincts:
The uncontested State Senate race had 20.4% more blank ballots on average compared to the contested State House race, suggesting that the challengers (myself included) were primarily filling in the blanks of an uncontested incumbent! (For reference, Senator Barrett won his race with 71.1% of the vote, picking up only 3.7% more votes than Representative Stanley in a contested race.)
The number of blanks (5399) in the uncontested State Senate race was 90.1% of the (5993) Republican Presidential voters in the 9th Middlesex House district, and the uncontested incumbent State Senator (13,993) only overperformed the Democratic Presidential candidate (12,919) by 1,074 (or only 5.4%) of the overall votes (19,679) in the 9th Middlesex House district.
What to expect in 2025
As I look to the future, I intend to continue working my day-job as a manager at the utility company, volunteering on the board of directors at the Waltham Fields Community Farm, and participating in events across the community as an informed and engaged citizen.
Starting in January, I will also be looking to proactively support any candidates for city councilor (particularly non-incumbents) who are willing to commit to three basic goals if elected:
Respecting everyone’s time and attention (of any political party or none at all, of any faith or none at all, and regardless of how long someone has lived in Waltham) by meeting people where they are, listening to and seeking to understand their concerns, and doing what is feasible to help all residents live dignified and productive lives regardless of their means or abilities
Promoting government transparency by funding improvements to the City of Waltham website so that it meets modern standards for user experience and digital accessibility (and that it is promptly updated ahead of and following public meetings and events)
Advocating for the development and implementation of a long-term, city-wide strategic plan designed to needs of Waltham today and in the future based on extensive and inclusive stakeholder input from residents
There are many other important and pressing challenges facing Waltham, but I believe that committing to those 3 goals will set the city up for success in addressing all of the other challenges ahead of us.
If you are someone interested in running for city council (or know someone who should consider running), please feel free to contact me.